Thin resources and drought in key African export markets could result in increased demand for white maize from South Africa, while improved summer crop conditions could improve the yields for supply.
This is according to agriculture economist Wandile Sihlobo who said that recent rainfall in the country had helped to improve soil moisture, which was good news for summer grains and oilseeds, with sustained drought and fall armyworm threatening the maize production season on the continent.
“Given that supplies are now slightly depleted as many countries near the end of their marketing seasons, if the new season crops fail or decline significantly, then African markets will invariably look to South Africa for additional supplies,” he said.
Additionally, the South African weather service has indicated that summer crop growing areas could experience a weak La Niña between February and April.
“This could support crops in areas that managed to plant on time, from the current stages of development up to pollination,” said Sihlobo. “This essentially increases the possibility of fairly good yields in grains and oilseeds.”
Furthermore, the 4.2 million tonne carryover stock from the 2017/18 marketing year will boost supplies in the 2018/19 marketing year.
Sihlobo added that while SA’s summer grain and oilseed production was expected to decline this season, international observers remained fairly positive about the country’s crop performance. The United Stated Department of Agriculture has left its SA maize production estimate unchanged from January 2018 at 12.5 million tonnes – well above the annual consumption of 10.5 million tonnes.